Alert Details Alert Sent
Message beac1a44-087d-4afe-9620-2e218cb601de from ABMS_Met_Office sent at 15:40:11 on 2022-09-13
Status / Scope / Type Actual / Public / Alert
References
No references
Referenced by
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Info
Language
EN
Alert summary
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
Effective
15:40:11 2022-09-13
Expires
14:40:11 2022-09-14
Description
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM) IN FIVE DAYS AND IMPACT THE ISLANDS.
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER AL96 WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA AND EVEN HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE, IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP INTO A STORM, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME. AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, DISTURBANCE AL96 POSES LITTLE OR MINIMAL THREAT, BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AND AN ALERT MAY BE REQUIRED IN A DAY OR TWO. TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1121 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY IS 30 PERCENT AND FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY IS 40 PERCENT.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD BE IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. MORE OR LESS WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL INTENSITY, SIZE AND TRACK.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Instructions
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THAT THEY ARE REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
Contact
ABMS Met Office at 462-3017, if confirmation of this message is needed.
Category
Geo
Affected areas
Antigua
Barbuda
Urgency / Severity / Certainty
Expected / Moderate / Observed
Sent by
Dale Destin
Event code(s)
SAME = CEM
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