Alert Details Update Sent
Message ae2ab6c4-7dc9-4623-99cf-175a25a1f5db from ABMS_Met_Office sent at 13:12:41 on 2020-07-27
Status / Scope / Type Actual / Public / Update
References
Referenced by
No references
Info
Language
EN
Alert summary
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT - TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA
Effective
13:12:41 2020-07-27
Expires
12:12:41 2020-07-28
Description
A TROPICAL STORM ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
IT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, AL92 IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN LESS THAN 60 HOURS AS, AT LEAST, TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES A MODERATE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, ELEVATED STORM SURGE, EXTREME SEAS, MODERATE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND SOME DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 8 AM LST OR 1200 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30 MPH. RECALL THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING ONE AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST TRACK, AL92 COULD TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT TO EARLY TO SAY WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS. THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS FROM AL92 COULD PASS A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND SPARE THEM ANY SERIOUS IMPACT.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, AS THE SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE AND GROWING THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
Instructions
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, AS THE SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE AND GROWING THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
Contact
ABMS Met Office at 462-3017, if conformation of this message is needed.
Category
Met
Safety
Rescue
Transport
Affected areas
Antigua
Barbuda
Urgency / Severity / Certainty
Future / Moderate / Possible
Sent by
Dale Destin
Event code(s)
SAME = CEM
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