Alert Details Update Sent
Message 85920637-0075-44c9-93d1-9d9f1a852147 from ABMS_Met_Office sent at 00:23:43 on 2020-08-12
Status / Scope / Type Actual / Public / Update
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Referenced by
Info
Language
EN
Alert summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS…A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
Effective
00:23:43 2020-08-12
Expires
23:23:43 2020-08-12
Description
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
LATE TODAY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL 95 BECAME TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACT TROPICAL-CYCLONE-HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED OR LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS IS ELEVATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE-WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS PREPARED AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
AT 5 PM LST OR 2100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE BY WEDNESDAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM PASSING AN UNCOMFORTABLY SAFE DISTANCE NORTH OF BARBUDA. HOWEVER, IT IS EARLY DAYS AND A NUMBER OF MODELS HAS THE CYCLONE PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY, INDICATIVE OF THE FACT THE THE AREA IS IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY.
Instructions
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR STORM OR HURRICANE PLANS, AS THE SYSTEM POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED DAMAGE, INJURY AND LOSS OF LIFE.
Contact
ABMS MET OFFICE AT 462-3017, IF CONFIRMATION OF THIS MESSAGE IS NEEDED.
Category
Met
Safety
Transport
Health
Rescue
Affected areas
Antigua
Barbuda
Urgency / Severity / Certainty
Future / Minor / Possible
Sent by
Dale Destin
Event code(s)
SAME = CEM
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