Alert Details Alert Sent
Message 0d3c1291-981a-4a76-9409-cac6612c2f09 from ABMS_Met_Office sent at 21:59:10 on 2023-09-05
Status / Scope / Type Actual / Public / Alert
References
No references
Referenced by
No references
Info
Language
EN
Alert summary
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT
Effective
21:59:10 2023-09-05
Starts at
21:59:43 2023-09-05
Expires
03:59:43 2023-09-06
Description
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITOR AREA OF CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH SOMETIME THURSDAY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF LEE IS INHERENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE MAINLY TO THE NOTABLE DISTANCE FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRE WILL LIKELY PASS A RELATIVELY SAFE DISTANCE NORTH OF THE REGION. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IN THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM POSES AN ELEVATED OR MINOR THREAT TO THE ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND HAVING YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND READY. ADDITIONALLY, PLEASE STAY ACTIVELY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE CLOSELY.
AT 5 PM, TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1353 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1553 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LEE IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN COULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, AS A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED BY HAZARDOUS SEAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY, REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
Instructions
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM TONIGHT.
Contact
ABMS Met Office at 462-3017, if confirmation of this message is needed.
Category
Safety
Met
Rescue
Transport
Affected areas
Antigua
Barbuda
Urgency / Severity / Certainty
Future / Minor / Unlikely
Sent by
Dale Destin
Event code(s)
SAME = CEM
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